My first dream in 2020 was about OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. I do not know why. Maybe it has to do with the right to left way of reading in Arab making 2020 read as 0202.
Whatever the reason, my dream was about an OPEC meeting announcing to the world that as of today OPEC commits itself to transform itself into 02 PEC, the Organization of Oxygen Producing and Exporting Countries, in a period of seven years.
Oil production to zero
The first part of the plan involves the reduction of the weekly oil production by one day’s volume per year so in a seven years period the total oil production would be reduced to zero.
Replace by hydrogen production
The second part of the plan involves the capacity building for hydrogen production. Electricity from new solar plants and wind parks will be used to turn water into hydrogen and oxygen. Also shipping capacity in harbors will be transformed to ship hydrogen.
Free oxygen for all
For the oxygen export no facilities will be needed since it will be released in the atmosphere, free for anyone to use!
What about Oil Prices?
If the economic law of supply and demand holds only minor truth it may be expected that oil prices will go up. How much? Hard to tell. More than 14% per year? That would be great because that would increase the income for the OPEC members and that would be very helpful to finance the transition.
Cascading effects
The effect of higher oil prices would impact many aspects of the worlds economy. All kinds of shifts that have long been anticipated would get an enormous boost. Just think about the electrification of transport, bio based chemicals, renovations in the build environment and many more.
What about Coal?
One may fear that the reduction of oil production will increase the use of coal.
Currently the production of coal is less than the production of oil. There are still vast reserves for coal but the polluting effect of coal is bigger than that of oil. So replacing oil by coal would be a bad venture. It will not be an easy venture either because not every use of oil can easily be transformed to the use of coal.
What might happen is that the price of coal keeps on par with the price of oil. That would give the coal producing countries the financial option to invest the extra income in sustainable energy sources. That would be good news.
The coal producing countries might even admire the courage of OPEC and follow suit with a similar initiative. That would be great news!
What about Gas?
One may fear that the reduction of oil production will increase the use of gas.
Currently the production of gas is less than the production of oil and the reserves for gas are similar to oil. The polluting effect of gas is less than that of oil, so replacing oil by gas would not be such a bad venture if you have a short term perspective.
If you take the long term perspective the goal should be to leave as much fossil fuel in the ground as possible.
Actually, we have taken out too much already…
It will not be an easy venture either because not every use of oil can easily be transformed to the use of gas.
What might happen with gas could be similar to what might happen with coal: prices might go up. That would also give the gas producing countries the financial option to invest the extra income in sustainable energy sources. That would be good news.
The gas producing countries might also admire the courage of OPEC and follow suit with a similar initiative. That would be great news!
Museum of the Last Barrel
I also dreamed about the opening of The Museum of the Last Barrel.
The third part of OPEC’s plan to transform itself into 02 PEC is to document the transition and turn it into a museum. Centerpiece of the museum will be The Last Barrel.
The Last Barrel would be on display for everyone to see. In that way it would proudly mark the end of an era because the carbons in that barrel will never make it into the earths atmosphere!
Book your tickets for the grand opening on January 1st 2027!
What will future generations think?
I think future generations will admire the passion, courage and willpower of OPEC. The enormous global action that their initiative initiated has no equivalent in human history.
For decades OPEC has been the main supplier of the carbons that polluted the earths atmosphere and brought the earths ecosystems on the brink of collapse. That it was this very same OPEC that was able to reinvent itself and transform into 02 PEC in only seven years is absolutely remarkable. And, by doing so, 02 PEC became a catalyst for humanity to reinvent itself. That is seen as a true 8th world wonder!
Happy New Year
I know, I know.
Some dreams come true.
Some dreams don’t.
But,
Just for a moment,
Imagine…!
